"Bayern struggles against top-6 opponents"
Gegen Top 6: 0.75 ppg · gegen Rest: 1.909 ppg (Δ -1.159).
Prediction relevance: Adjustment -38.63pp für Top-6-Gegner.
At a glance
Freiburg sit 3th after matchday 7 with 13 points (4W 1D 2L, goal diff +7). Last 5 form: WDWLL (7/15 pts).
Top Scorers
Bundesliga Top Scorers Season 28321
- 1
Niclas Füllkrug8 Goals - 2
Michael Olise6 Goals - 3
Patrik Schick6 Goals - 4
Younes Ebnoutalib5 Goals - 5
Phillip Tietz5 Goals
| # | Player | Club | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Harry Kane | Bayern | 4 |
| 7 | Christopher Nkunku | Leipzig | 4 |
| 8 | Luis Díaz | Bayern | 4 |
| 9 | Michael Gregoritsch | Augsburg | 4 |
| 10 | Yuito Suzuki | Freiburg | 4 |
Form & Momentum
Freiburg — Form & Home/Away
Last 5
WDWLL
Home
9 Pts
Away
4 Pts
Last result: Loss. Last 5 form: W-D-W-L-L.
The form of the last five matches is the most important leading indicator for short-term bets. A team on a three-match win streak is significantly underpriced when the odds movement hasn't yet caught up with the momentum. The Pinnacle Oracle weights this form at roughly 30 percent against table position (40 percent), home/away splits (20 percent) and opponent strength (10 percent).
Assists & Card Ranking
Bundesliga Top Assists
- 1
Marco Grüll6 Assists - 2
Harry Kane5 Assists - 3
Antonio Nusa5 Assists - 4
Fabian Rieder4 Assists - 5
Sheraldo Becker4 Assists
| # | Player | Club | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Michael Olise | Bayern | 3 |
| 7 | Miguel Gutiérrez | Leverkusen | 3 |
| 8 | Matthias Ginter | Freiburg | 3 |
| 9 | Lukas Ullrich | Gladbach | 3 |
| 10 | Derry Scherhant | Freiburg | 3 |
Bundesliga Card Ranking (Yellow + Red×3)
- 1
Felix Uduokhai3 1 - 2
Alexander Prass2 1 - 3
Yuito Suzuki2 1 - 4
Bernardo1 1 - 5
Tim Kleindienst1 1
| # | Player | Club | Y | R | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Raphael Onyedika | Eintracht | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Phillipp Mwene | Mainz | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Ron Schallenberg | Schalke 04 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Juma Bah | Augsburg | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Samuele Inácio | BVB | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Statistical Splits BETA
What actually moves Bayern's result — and what's myth. Bootstrap confidence intervals from 68 matches of the Kompany-Ära.
| Split | Group A | Group B | Δ ppg | 95% CI | p-value | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home games vs. away games | Home | Away | +0.65 | [0.03, 1.26] | 0.05 | 🟢 |
| Versus top-6 opponents vs. rest of the league | Vs top 6 | Vs rest | -1.16 | [-1.74, -0.56] | 0.00 | 🟢 |
| With vs. without Maximilian Eggestein in the starting XI | With Maximilian Eggestein | Without Maximilian Eggestein | +1.52 | [1.21, 1.85] | 0.00 | ⬜ |
| With vs. without Noah Atubolu in the starting XI | With Noah Atubolu | Without Noah Atubolu | -0.14 | [-1.16, 0.88] | 0.78 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Matthias Ginter in the starting XI | With Matthias Ginter | Without Matthias Ginter | +0.42 | [-0.69, 1.44] | 0.45 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Vincenzo Grifo in the starting XI | With Vincenzo Grifo | Without Vincenzo Grifo | +0.65 | [-0.07, 1.35] | 0.08 | 🟡 |
| With vs. without Lucas Höler in the starting XI | With Lucas Höler | Without Lucas Höler | -0.54 | [-1.20, 0.13] | 0.11 | 🟡 |
| Heavy week (after UCL/intl. break) vs. normal week | Heavy week | Normal week | -1.50 | — | — | ⬜ |
| After UCL midweek vs. without UCL before | After UCL | No UCL | -1.50 | — | — | ⬜ |
| Full strength (0 absences) vs. 2+ key-player absences | 0 absences | 2+ absences | +0.17 | [-0.77, 1.11] | 0.75 | 🟡 |
Reading: 🟢 statistically significant · 🟡 indicative (sample or effect too small) · ⚪ no effect detectable · ⬜ untested
ppg = points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw, 0 for a loss). Δ ppg = difference in ppg between the two groups. 95% CI = bootstrap confidence interval (10,000 resamples). p-value < 0.05 = statistically significant at n ≥ 20.
Methodology: Single-Regime-Analyse (nur Kompany-Ära). xG fehlt im Plan und ist nicht enthalten. Bootstrap-CIs statt parametrischer Tests.
Not in dataset: xG, PPDA, Distance Covered
Myth Check BETA
What fans believe — and what the data says. Every myth is tested against real match data.
"Midweek UCL games cost points"
Indikativ: Nach CL 0 ppg, ohne CL 1.5 ppg.
Prediction relevance: Kein klares Adjustment.
"Home games are different"
Heim: 1.824 ppg · Auswärts: 1.176 ppg (Δ 0.648).
Prediction relevance: Adjustment 21.6pp für Heimspiele.
Data Analysis
Matchday 7 of the Bundesliga 2026/2027 season: Bayern top the table with 17 points. Freiburg (3th, 13 pts). Top scorer: Niclas Füllkrug (8).
This analysis rotates with every matchday through eight data-driven templates: league leadership, relegation battle, Champions League race, home/away splits, form trends, attack/defence, factual summary and overall view. Every statement is grounded in SportsMonks and Pinnacle data — no speculation, no hallucination.
What the data doesn't say
Table, form and odds show the status quo. They say nothing about whether a coach is on the verge of being sacked, a key player is injured, or the board is internally under pressure. This is exactly where the Predictions page comes in: there season markets (Polymarket), transfer rumours and schedule strength feed into the assessment — factors that don't show up in any standard statistic.
The SC Freiburg File in turn provides the historical context: which crises has the club survived, which not. Anyone moving money on Bundesliga markets needs all three layers — hard stats, forward markets and institutional memory.
Frequently Asked
- Where do Freiburg currently stand?
- 3th with 13 points after matchday 7 (4W 1D 2L, goal diff +7).
- Who is the Bundesliga top scorer?
- Niclas Füllkrug (Werder) with 8 goals in the 28321 season.
- Will Freiburg be relegated?
- Freiburg are currently 7 points clear of the relegation places.
Related
The data shows the status quo. What does this mean for the season?
- Predictions & Forecasts — title probability, transfers, schedule strength
- The SC Freiburg File — history, scandals, triumphs